Front Office Confidential

It's never too early to look to the future.

Today just feels right doesn't it?

Training camp has started and the front office is getting a feel for how their new cogs will fit in the wheel. If you're a serious follower, you'd know this team has come as close as they can get to perfection.

They've got youth mixed with veteran leadership. Depth at offensive line and running back. New toys to play with in the passing game. The Legion of Boom is still intact. KJ Wright and "Baby Patrick Willis" Wagner are here to stay. They've added valuable pieces to this defense. Most notably a corner in Antoine Winfield. Plus some help for the pass rush. And we can't forget about the most important position on the team. Wilson is a gift from the football gods.

There are potential pro-bowlers across the board this year. Including special teams- there's a lost appreciation for the importance of a good punter.

This team, more or less, has nothing missing.

But ask anyone who knows the ins and outs of the NFL salary cap, and they will tell you that no team can retain all their star players. Three years from now the Seahawks will not have Richard Sherman, Russell Wilson, Earl Thomas, Bobby Wagner, Max Unger, Russell Okung, Golden Tate, Kam Chancellor, KJ Wright, Bruce Irvin, Russell Wilson, and Sidney Rice all under contract..... I think I said Russell Wilson twice... And Kam Chancellor just signed a four year deal.... The point is, no team can keep all their young talent. Once that rookie deal expires, these players cost a pretty penny.

The NFL salary cap determines how much money each team can spend on their players. They use that money wisely. Each GM is faced with the decision of which young guy he really needs on his team. Is this guy a team player? Will he demand an expensive contract? Is he irreplaceable?

Sidney Rice and Zach Miller have bloated contracts. Golden Tate, Doug Baldwin, and Brandon Browner are all in their final year. The next few years of negotiations will be crucial. If they can retain these players on cheap(er) deals, we could see this team consistently in the playoffs for years to come.

I'll start with the looming contracts of Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. Both have had different roads to get where they are today.

Baldwin, pictured above, burst onto the scene in 2011 as an undrafted free agent. He finished 2011 with the most receptions and receiving yards on the team. Since then he's shown to be a guy with good hands and an eye for the holes in a defense, but he doesn't possess much physical prowess. Basically, a very valuable backup. He lines up in the slot in three WR packages and mainly runs intermediate routes. Rarely will an offensive coordinator call a play specifically for Baldwin, but when a play breaks down, he shines. Baldwin isn't going to receive a hefty contract after this year and the front office could go either way. He isn't irreplaceable, and I think Chris Harper (Seattle's 4th round pick in the 2013 Draft) could be the possession receiver in the middle that assumes Baldwin's job after this year.





Tate, on the other hand, declared for the draft as a junior. Seattle picked him in the second round of the 2010 Draft (60th overall) because of his ability to grab jump balls and make people miss. The numbers for Tate's three seasons go like this:
2010: 21 receptions 227 yards 0 TDs
2011: 35 receptions 382 yards 3 TDs
2012: 45 receptions 688 yards 7 TDs
As you can see, he's improved, slowly but surely, each year. After his first two seasons, some were calling him a bust (I still don't know how any player drafted after the first round can be called a bust). But with the departure of Big Mike Williams, Tate switched to the split end position. That was when he really came into his own. He ran more go routes at the split, and was able to showcase his jumping ability while still putting his agility to use with WR screens.

Some argue that this is Tate's year. And I wouldn't dismiss that. In fact, I would argue that due to Harvin's injury, we might not see Tate wearing a Seahawk uniform when 2014 rolls around. Wilson seems to trust Tate, and Derrell Bevell (the Seahawks' offensive coordinator) has always been cautious with Sidney Rice. Tate very well could have a career year. A year that makes him an expensive WR at the end of this season.

As I said before, Golden plays the split end position. The traditional split end is a tall wide receiver with big, strong hands. More often than not, the split will see jump balls come his way. He uses a big frame to "muscle" his way into position against a smaller cornerback. Before Tate, the Seahawks used guys like 6'5" Mike Williams, 6'3" Braylon Edwards, and 6'3" Terrell Owens. Needless to say, the 5'10" Golden Tate is not the same type of WR. He's a little unorthodox in the way he plays the position. But he does have strong hands (fewest drops on the team last year) and his leaping ability allows him to catch those jump balls.

Let's say Tate doesn't get injured, and he ends up with about 80 receptions and 1000 yards this year. How much would you be willing to pay to keep him? Or a better question would be: Can you replace him?

Depending on the number of free agents going on the market and how deep the draft class is, a GM may decide that his young, talented "Golden Tate" isn't worth resigning. OR he may decide to restructure the contract of his overpaid "Sidney Rice" in order to free up some money. If the player refuses, he'll try trading him. If that doesn't work he'll just release him.

The easy solution to this problem is finding the "next man up" in the draft. The upcoming draft has a few wide receivers that would be a perfect fit for the split. My personal favorite:

Brandon Coleman

Standing at a massive 6'6", Coleman is purely a deep threat for the Rutgers offense. He'll need to fill out his frame before he plays on Sundays but he's almost a lock for the first round. Take a look at his highlight video to get an idea of his potential. Of course a highlight video is, well, a highlight video. It doesn't tell you that he's not great through his breaks, occasionally drops the ball, and just had knee surgery this spring. But based off pure, towering power, this guy will have success in the NFL. A two sport athlete in high school (the other being basketball), Coleman reportedly ran the 40 yard dash in 4.48 seconds his junior year.

The only problem he's had in his collegiate career is a lack of chances. The quarterback play at Rutgers has been godawful since he began starting at split end his sophomore season. Inaccurate throws has resulted in subpar numbers for Coleman, as his best season has been a measly 43 receptions and 718 yards. There's no denying he's got potential, but his lack of production has some draft scouts saying he may slip to the late first round. Perhaps even... the 32nd pick??? I sure hope so. Coleman's my man crush of this draft. I'm really pushing for him to have another quiet season over there in New Brunswick.

As for Brandon Browner, I'm happy to report that he wants to "keep the LOB (Legion of Boom) intact and a force for years to come." He was set to be paid the league minimum of $550,000 this year, but was just recently given an undisclosed pay raise for renegotiating his contract (which almost certainly means he's extended his contract). That's not to say the Seahawks won't be looking for a CB in the draft, but it won't be a major need.

What IS a major need for this team will be the dreaded 3-Technique defensive tackle. Something I'll attempt to explain in my next article. I say "attempt" because even the most diehard Seahawk bloggers have no idea what Carroll wants for the position (I personally think Carroll doesn't even know). It's basically a thick, quick, fire plug who can penetrate in the middle. In reality, every team likes their 3-Technique a little different. The problem with drafting for the position is it's very similar to a first round pick in the MLB draft. It's hit and miss. There's no easy way of knowing "this guy will dominate at the 3." And you won't know for several years. Hell, the unanimous vote for best 3-Technique in the game right now is a 4th round pick from the 2009 Draft- Henry Milton. But I'll let you know who the front runners are for next year's draft. Not that it'll matter, those rankings change each week.

Until next time.

Cheers

Getting Off the Field. Part 2

Hello and welcome to the final analysis of the nickle package for the Seattle Seahawks.

If you haven't already, I encourage you to read up on Part 1 of this series, which covers the package's intentions, the responsibilities of the nickle corner, and the new "kid" on the block.

As promised, I'll go over prospects on the defensive line and how they'll be utilized. I've only got so much time before you get tired of me rambling on, so lets get to it.

First the setup.

On the edges you've got two quick defensive ends. Last year it was Chris Clemons on the strong side (the side the tight end is on) and Bruce Irvin on the weak side. Both are lined up wider than Seattle's base 4-3 defense. Lining up about 3 yards wider than the tackles allows for a better angle at the QB. These guys excel at anticipating snap counts and accelerating out of their stance. Their objective is to get up the field as quickly as possible and force the quarterback to step up.

Take a look at Bruce Irvin's first sack to get an idea of what I'm talking about.

That was textbook nickle pass rush by Bruce (and not a bad dance I might add). It's 3rd and long and he's disregarding the run. He fires up field to prevent the bootleg and then worries about the right tackle in front of him. In this case he uses a bull rush and, bam, 1st sack of his career.

Of course, the ultimate goal is to get the sack, but they want to keep the QB in the pocket first and foremost. As long as he doesn't have any room to move, he can't step into his throws. Which can result in under-thrown deep balls or, as stated in the Part 1 of this analysis, drop off passes. Both are ideal on third and longs. Hopefully your team's got a coverage safety begging for the opportunity to get a pick six (cough Earl Thomas.. cough cough), or players covering the flat just waiting to pummel any poor soul leisurely looking the ball into their hands on a short pass.

So in recap, they've got two very good defensive ends, a bawl hawking secondary, and a favorable 3rd and long situation. But I can here you saying why... WHY were the Seahawks ranked dead last in 3rd down QBR allowed last year?

Well, Part 1 of that answer has already been given (seriously, if you haven't already read it you should). As for part two, I'd ask you to recall a man by the name of Jason Jones.

Jones played as an inside pass rusher in the position known as the 3-Tech. His responsibility was to "collapse the pocket." This can be achieved by shooting through the gap and making a sack or pushing the guard straight back into the quarterback, giving him as little room as possible. Jones racked up 3.0 sacks and 5 QB hits before getting injured in Week 12. Those numbers don't exactly stand out, but as a situational pass rusher, that's very good production. After he was placed on injured reserve, Pete Carroll went on to say that, "We're just not the same without Jason in there." I firmly believe that if Jason's knees had held up, the only blemish in our nickle defense would have been the poor play from the nickle corner.

But the ball keeps rolling and the 2013 season is coming quickly. Jason Jones inked a new deal in Detroit this offseason and the Seahawks went out and grabbed Michael Bennett (left) on a one year "prove it" deal. Bennett has already been practicing as the 3-Tech in the nickle package and seems to have the position locked down before camp starts.

Cliff Avril (right) was signed on a 2 year deal and will almost surely take on Clemons' role as starting defensive end (also known as the LEO in Carroll's defensive scheme) in base 4-3 and in nickle.

But this is where the water gets murky. Bruce is out for the first 4 games (dumb decision by him). Clemons is coming back from an ACL tear. Hell, even Michael Bennett has experience as a DE. All three can be effective as defensive ends in the nickle package, but the question remains. Who will be the weakside defensive end for the first 4 games? If Greg Scruggs wasn't out for the year with an ACL tear, I would've bet Bennett would slide over to defensive end and Scruggs would take over as the nickle 3-Tech. Instead, and this is my own opinion btw, Bennett will still slide over to weakside defensive end and there will be a competition for the "temporary" 3-Tech vacancy left open by Bruce's suspension.

Honorable mention goes to Jordan Hill, who was selected in the 3rd round of the 2013 NFL Draft. He looks to be the looong term replacement for Brandon Mebane (Seattle's nose tackle), but figures to be a situational pass rusher in the nickle package for this year. Heavy and powerful, yet athletic and agile, I can only describe him as a 303 lb "linebacker." Hill should be a lot of fun to watch on the inside and could surprise some people with his quickness.

Whew.... There ya go. That's my take on the nickle package for the Seattle Seahawks this year. If you've read both my pieces, you can see that there has been a little shuffling in the personnel this offseason. But I personally think it's been for the better, and the Hawks' 3rd down defense should be much improved this year.

Did I miss anything? Let me know!

Check back soon to get my take on the impact of Percy Harvin, news that Bruce is learning the linebacker position, and my guess on what the Hawks will be looking for in next year's draft.

Cheers.

Getting Off the Field. Part 1

Morning Seattleites,

In this piece I'll cover all the bases of the nickle package for the Seattle Seahawks. The objectives of the package, the personnel associated with the package and their responsibilities. But most importantly, I'll list some reasons for optimism next season.

To start, lets explain the package.

The nickle package is used in obvious passing situations. More often than not, it's 3rd and long and the defensive coordinator is sending the hounds, hoping to sack or at the very least, pressure the QB. Force a short dump off pass and you've won the battle. One of three linebackers in Pete Carroll's 4-3 defensive scheme (usually the weakside linebacker) is replaced with a third corner, also known as the "nickle" corner. His responsibility is to cover the flat (i.e. the dump off pass).

The nickle corner needs to possess three vital attributes to be effective in the slot. Good lateral quickness (not exactly speed), sure tackling, and an eye for developing plays such as a screens.

If all goes as planned, the pass rush forces a short throw and the nickle corner is sitting there, waiting to make the tackle and get the defense off the field. Problem is, the pass rush rarely forced the short throw. And when it did, the nickle corner rarely made that tackle.

When you crunch the numbers, Seattle had one of the worst 3rd down defenses in the league last year. Most analysts point to the lack of pass rush on 3rd and longs, but I'll start my analysis on the corner tasked with the previously stated assignments.

Marcus Trufant.

In what may end up being the final year of his astounding career, Marcus didn't exactly go out with a bang.

For starters, he wasn't built for the position. You've gotta get in that slot and stand toe to toe with any immovable object that comes your way; be it a 6'5" titan...err tight end or a stacked thumper of a running back. This package is essentially replacing a 230+ lb linebacker with a smaller (albeit quicker) corner, and expecting him to play with the same physicality. The nickle corner is a man's job and it requires a powerful human being to succeed there.

However a player can still perform admirably if he possesses the other two attributes listed above, and this is where Marcus failed to impress. He rarely was ahead of the play and didn't have the same step he had before the Legion of Boom came onto the scene.

But I digress... Not every defense gets the perfect package of power and quickness for their nickle corner...

(Pause for effect)

Enter Antoine Winfield.

Standing at 5'9" 180 lbs, Antoine has been a force for the Vikings for almost a decade. Even at age 36, he started in all 16 games. Collecting a combined 101 tackles with 72 solo tackles in 2012. That is damn good for a corner. A three-time Pro Bowler and All Pro in 2008, Winfield is described as one of the hardest hitting corners in the entire league. Back in 1999, he ran the 40 in 4.41 seconds. He may have lost a step... or three since his golden days, but his scouting report says he hasn't lost much quickness. Just a little less top speed.

The Vikings released him this offseason due to his imminent salary cap hit, hoping to resign him to a more cap friendly deal. Fortunately, he signed with the Seahawks. Brought in specifically for the nickle corner role, I'd say with confidence that his addition is the most significant of all defensive acquisitions this year.

But I'm not done yet. Tune in next time to read up on the likes of Cliff Avril and Michael Bennett and how they will effect the nickle package for the Seahawks. And MUCH later see how Harvin will completely change defensive personnel. How he'll create mismatches for the team across the field (that one should be fun).

Cheers.